Beijing (AFP) – Thousands of spectators filled a stadium in China to watch 10 suspects be sentenced to death for crimes ranging from drug-dealing to homicide before they were taken away to be executed at the weekend. An online video of the rare public trial, held in southern Guangdong province on Saturday, showed the handcuffed suspects paraded around a track by uniformed police officers as onlookers watched from the sidelines.
The convicts also stood on a podium as their sentences were read over loudspeakers, while officials sat on a stage flanked by military guards. Rights groups say China executes more people than any other country, but Beijing does not give figures on the death penalty, regarding the statistics as state secrets.
A public announcement last week from Lufeng City People’s Court had invited citizens to sit in on the “open-air stadium trial”, as it was dubbed by the state-run Global Times. Beijing News, which circulated the trial video along. Full Story
Political correctness is going away, and this trend as we stated recently is set to last at least 15 years. Violence levels, for now, will continue to soar, but the response from governments especially in Asia and Eastern Europe is going to be just as brutal. The West will eventually join the pack. A leader is set to emerge that is going to make Trump look like a very polite gentleman.
McDonald’s has cold brew now, and what is coffee anymore?
In fairness, it was only a matter of time before the cold brew craze found its way to the massive fast-food chain. McDonald’s debuted its own cold brew beverage in two varieties: frozen coffee and frappe. This is the part where you swear you’ll never try it, and then give in four dayslater because you’re “curious.” Full Story
A politician is warning her fellow Russians not to do sex with foreigners during the World Cup
Tamara Pletnyova, the head of the Russian Duma’s Family, Women, and Children Committee, says to be especially careful if a potential father is “of a different race.” Her comments come as Russia is desperately trying to convince the world that it’s ready to tackle the racism that many are predicting will come along with the World Cup. Incidentally: Happy World Cup day to you! Full Story
There’s going to be a Fortnite World Cup with $100 million in prize money
If you’re familiar with the fandom of the video game, you might say, “Of course, this was inevitable.” For the uninitiated, Fortnite is a multiplatform game where 100 players vie for resources and compete against one another to be the last person standing. It’s also the reason you haven’t seen some of your loved ones in weeks. The Fortnite tournament will be open to all players, with qualifying tournaments starting in fall 2018. Full Story
113 politicians have been killed ahead of Mexico’s election. There are still two weeks to go
“Violence is altering the profile of candidates,” one expert told us. “Who sticks around? The reckless and those who collude [with criminals].”
That’s because this electoral season has been a brutally violent one in Mexico.
More than 100 candidates, pre-candidates, and current and former politicians have been killed, according to an organization tracking this. The government’s tally — 34, which counts only candidates — still pushes the death toll to four per month.
It gets more dramatic: There are hundreds of candidates who have backed out of their races out of fear for their safety, and many others who have curbed campaign activities.
The attacks have been brazen: a politician killed on a public bus, a candidate murdered while taking a selfie. You need to read Karla Zabludovsky’s deep dive into the violence in Mexico’s election. Full Story
Senate GOP moves to repeal consumer rule
The Republican-led Senate narrowly voted Tuesday to repeal a banking rule that would let consumers band together to sue their bank or credit card company to resolve financial disputes. Vice President Mike Pence cast the final vote to break a 50-50 tie. The banking industry had been lobbying hard to roll back the regulation from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The bureau had moved to ban most types of mandatory arbitration clauses found in the fine print of agreements consumers often enter into when opening a checking account or getting a credit card.
The vote reflects the effort of the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to undo regulations that the GOP argues harms the free market. The measure now moves to President Donald Trump’s desk for his signature. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the president applauded the vote. Full Story
As we stated when the Crowd is polarised it is easier to rob them, and this law is just one example of the many laws that will be passed stripping the average Joe of the last shreds of power he/she holds. In the years to come it’s going to be easier for Companies to renege on their pension obligations and this will also apply to City, State and Federal workers. Most pensions are extremely underfunded and are using aggressive calculations to give the impression all is well
Trump defended Kim Jong Un’s human rights abuses after the summit
Yesterday, while speaking to Fox News, President Trump praised Kim Jong Un as “tough,” “smart,” and a “great negotiator.”
When host Bret Baier asked the president if he brought up human rights with Kim at the summit, Trump said only “briefly.”
“You know, you call people, sometimes, killers. He is a killer,” responded Baier. Trump interjected that “well, he’s a tough guy,” adding that, “when you take over a country” at 27 years old, as Kim did, “that’s one in 10,000 that could do that.”
Still, Baier pressed, saying Kim has “still done some really bad things.” Trump responded, “Yeah, but so have a lot of other people done some really bad things.” You should watch the whole exchange.
A further thought:
When politics gives way to theater, we lose a sense of the magnitude of what’s supposed to be surprising. Watching the exchange reminded me of Katherine Miller’s thoughtful piece on the news cycle during this presidency: “each day demands your judgment. Is this normal? Is this normal? Is this normal?” Full Story
Japanese banks may have too many employees and branches, and the overcapacity is contributing to a drop in earnings power that may hurt the financial system, according to the nation’s central bank. “The low profitability of Japanese financial institutions is striking from an international perspective,” the Bank of Japan said in its twice-yearly financial system report. The number of employees and branches “may be in excess relative to demand,” it said.
While banks in most advanced economies are struggling to cope with low-interest rates, the problem is particularly acute in Japan, where the central bank’s monetary easing has squeezed lending margins to among the lowest in the world. Japanese banks are also having to contend with a shrinking population which has prompted some smaller lenders to merge and larger ones to diversify operations and expand abroad. Full Story
Just another way of saying we need to replace humans with AI; the AI automation trend is gathering momentum at a frightening pace.
The Italian prime minister’s new EU adviser compared the EU to Nazi Germany
In a blog post from 2014, Luciano Barra Caracciolo, Italy’s new undersecretary for EU affairs, posted an image of an EU flag being peeled back to reveal a Nazi flag underneath. He has authored books on the incompatibility between EU treaties and Italy’s constitution, and has argued for the country to exit the euro. Full Story
Hawaii just became the first state to ban a pesticide linked to developmental delays in kids
The bill Gov. David Ige signed into law bans all chemicals containing the insecticide chlorpyrifos, starting in 2019. It also prohibits spraying pesticides within 100 feet of schools while they’re in session. Chlorpyrifos is sprayed on crops across the US to kill a variety of pests. People who apply it have to wear chemical-resistant gloves, coveralls, and respirators, and avoid treated areas for one to five days. Full Story
BOJ can’t exit stimulus when inflation below 1 pct – BOJ Gov candidate Ito
TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan likely won’t be able to exit its massive stimulus programme while inflation is hovering below 1 percent, Takatoshi Ito, an academic who is a potential candidate to become the next BOJ governor, said on Wednesday. “What’s important is for inflation to accelerate, which would give (the BOJ) quite some flexibility in guiding monetary policy,” Ito, a Columbia University professor, told a seminar in Tokyo.
The BOJ has already laid the groundwork for normalising monetary policy by revamping its policy framework last September and gradually slowing its bond purchases, though raising its yield targets would be some time away, he said. “While inflation is hovering below 1 percent, it would be hard for the BOJ to exit (from ultra-loose monetary policy),” said Ito, who is considered a candidate to succeed BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his five-year term ends in April next year. Full Story
As predicted the trend stated this would happen. More central bankers will join the inflation is not an issue club.
Amazon is invading finance without really trying
Many people believe that big technology companies will soon become major competitors to traditional banks. But Amazon has invaded their turf without offering many financial services—its mammoth cloud-computing business is instead reshaping how the financial industry works.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the biggest provider of cloud computing, which has “massively” lowered barriers to entry for financial startups, according to Antony Jenkins, the former Barclays CEO turned fintech entrepreneur. He says tech firms used to raise millions of dollars just to buy servers; now, people who want to take on banks can use the tech giant’s cloud to quickly set up systems. Full Story
Watch what will happen when they start to attack. And what nobody is talking about is China. Alibaba is going to rip this sector apart. They are already huge in Asia with Ant financial. Banks are going to face massive competition. And after that, the next sector to get ripped will be the medical sector. Many businesses that exist today will not be around ten years from today.
New York City’s Empty Storefronts And The $15 Minimum Wage
“Why Is New York Full Of Empty Stores?”
That’s the question posed by the New York Times editorial board in today’s paper, as it worries about a “scourge of store closings that afflicts one section of the city after another, notably in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn.”
The editorial offers few answers to its question and at least one bad solution in the form of a new “vacancy tax” for building owners with unoccupied storefronts. But perhaps the most notable omission from the Times’ editorial is the board’s own role in exacerbating the city’s troubles through its advocacy for a $15 minimum wage.
The concerns about retail employment aren’t anecdotal: According to Labor Department data, 2016 was the first year since 2009 where New York City’s retail trade. Full Story
A trend in motion is unstoppable. Trying to control a trend is like trying to fight an anaconda with a toothpick. Wage Deflation is here to stay, and it’s going to gather incredible momentum in the months and years to come.
Austria went to polls on Oct 15 to choose its next leader. After a decisive victory for Sebastian Kurz, nationalist politics seems to be coming into the picture again. With the counting almost completed, excluding those who voted out of their home districts, People’s Party took away 31.6% of the votes. Social Democrats secured the second place with 26.9% votes, while far-right Freedom managed 26%.
Far right politics seems to be gaining steam in Europe. Despite Geert Wilders of Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of France failing to emerge victorious in their respective elections, the support they received shows that Europeans are divided when it comes to political orientation in their respective countries.
Moreover, last month in Germany, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 12.6% votes as Germans opposed Merkel’s friendly refugee policy and her handling of the 2015 migrant crisis. Full Story
The Alt right is adjusting and adapting very fast; they will move towards the centre to gain control, once in they will implement their agenda with frightening speed, but what will be even more shocking is that the majority of the people will support this stance. The trend of polarisation continues to gather momentum.. A new powerful and very charismatic person will suddenly appear in Europe.
Polish president sharply condemns weekend nationalist march
The Polish president has sharply condemned expressions of xenophobia and racism at a weekend march by nationalists, saying there is no place in the country for anti-Semitism and “sick nationalism.”
It was the strongest and first unequivocal condemnation by a representative of the country’s conservative leadership of the white supremacist and racist views expressed by some of the 60,000 people who took part in a march on the Independence Day holiday Saturday in Warsaw.
Government members over the past two days had mostly described participants as patriots and played down the nature of the xenophobic messages. Though many families took part in the march, the event was organized by far-right groups and some carried banners with slogans like “White Europe of brotherly nations” or had flags with Celtic crosses, a white supremacist symbol.
There were also anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim slogans and chants. One large banner read “Deus Vult” in Gothic lettering. Latin for “God wills it,” it was a cry used during the First Crusade in the 11th century, when a Christian army from Europe slaughtered Jews and Muslims in the Holy Land. In recent years, it has been used by the radical right to show hostility to Islam. Full Story
The outlook will worsen before things get better; we are at stage 3, and this cycle has 7-10 levels.
Sweden will ‘never go back’ to the days of mass immigration
The Prime Minister of Sweden has vowed his country will ‘never go back’ to recent levels of mass immigration after it emerged the terrorist who killed four people in a truck attack was a failed asylum seeker.
Stefan Löfven pledged to change his country’s liberal attitude, insisting the massive influx allowed during the 2015 migrant crisis would never happen again.
Rakhmat Akilov, from Uzbekistan, hijacked the lorry and deliberately drove into pedestrians on central Stockholm’s main shopping street on Friday afternoon. Full Story
This story and the one below confirm the trend that we first spoke of in 2015.
Norway deported record number in 2016
Through the end of November, Norwegian police deported a total of 7,312 people who were living illegally in Norway, according to figures released on Friday by the National Police Immigration Service Norway (Politiets Utlendingsenhet).
That’s the highest number ever, at around five percent more than last year.
“This is a figure that shows that there have been many who do not have a legitimate claim to asylum who have stayed here and failed to leave the country, and that’s why it is necessary for the police to do the work they have done throughout the year,” State Secretary Fabian Stang told broadcaster NRK.
“It’s always brutal when one is forced to use the police to get people to do what they are required to,” added Stang, who is secretary for Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug.
More than a fourth of those who were forced to leave the country were also slapped with criminal charges. Most of those were from Romania, Poland and Lithuania. Nationals from those three countries accounted for 43 percent of the 2,041 convicted criminals who were deported. Full Story
It’s not only Muslims that are being targeted; all immigrants are paying the price now.
EU migrant crisis: Austria can deport asylum seekers, court says
The case, brought by Austria and Slovenia, could affect the future of several hundred people who arrived during the migrant crisis of 2015-16. The ruling concerns two Afghan families and a Syrian who applied for asylum after leaving Croatia.
The court says it is Croatia’s responsibility to decide their cases. The crisis unfolded during the summer of 2015, as one million migrants and refugees travelled through the Western Balkans. Under the so-called Dublin regulation, refugees typically have to seek asylum in the first EU state they reach. But Germany suspended the Dublin regulation for Syrian refugees, halting deportations to the countries they arrived in.
From August 2015, hundreds – and sometimes thousands – arrived in Austria every day, initially via Hungary and later through Slovenia.
Many wanted to travel on to Germany, but around 90,000 applied for asylum in Austria, equivalent to about 1% of its population. Full Story
We stated that this would come to pass; in fact, we stated that the open hand would turn into a massive raise fist. The law of balancing states that the equation must balance; no matter how long it takes, the equation will always balance. We expect the outlook to darken a lot more before it stabilises.
For African migrants, ‘extreme vetting’ from U.S. to Europe slams the door shut
The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown was only the beginning for Africans struggling to flee war and famine. New restrictions within Africa and opaque deals between European countries and African regimes could have a much more dramatic effect soon, Geoffrey York explains
On the dangerous journey to Europe this year, hundreds of African migrants have died a horrific death at sea. They die from hypothermia or fuel inhalation, thirst or hunger in drifting boats, or suffocation in overcrowded cargo holds. Hundreds have drowned when their flimsy dinghies capsize.
More than 1,000 migrants, the majority of them Africans, have perished in the Mediterranean in the first four months of this year alone – far more than during the same period of last year. Among the dead: more than 150 children, according to Unicef.
Despite the terrible risks, more than 37,000 asylum-seekers, mainly from Africa, have survived the ordeal and reached Europe from the Libyan coast this year, including about 9,000 during the Easter weekend alone.
With the Balkan migration route through Greece now largely shut down, the flow of people on the Libyan route to Europe has expanded by about 35 percent from last year. It’s an exodus that continues to alarm many European governments, triggering a series of aggressive new measures to clamp down on migration. Full Story
The stance in the West is going to toughen continuously when it comes to dealing with immigrants.
U.S. Army Now Taking Applicants With Histories Of Mental Illness, Drug Abuse And Self-Mutilation
During America’s 16-year War On Terror, the military has often struggled to handle mental health problems among fighters after rises in suicides and violence against innocent civilians. More than 200 active-duty servicemembers have died by suicide every year since 2008, according to Pentagon data. A study published this year by JAMA Psychiatry found that suicide attempts in the military are often infectious and help push even more recruits to try taking their own lives.
The latest mental health controversy began last week after Devin Kelley, a dishonorably discharged former Air Force member, shot and killed 26 people during a church service in Sutherland Springs, Texas. Kelley died after the rampage from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, police said. Full Story
A great way to ensure that violence levels will continue to soar in the U.S. Imagine individuals with these behavioural patterns being trained to use lethal weapons and then eventually being released into society.
Why retiring in America has become less attractive?
In a worldwide study, the U.S. fell to No. 17 (down three spots from last year) in the Natixis Global Asset Management Global Retirement Index. The index ranks 43 mainly developed countries on their ability to offer its citizens a secure retirement. Norway, Switzerland and Sweden top the list.
Why did the U.S. have such a dismal showing?
The U.S. took hits in income equality, health care spending and life expectancy. While America may have the fifth-highest income per capita, we have the sixth lowest score for income equality, suggesting that retirement saving is difficult for average workers. Our life expectancy fell, yet we spend the most on health care compared to the other countries analyzed in the index. A big part of the problem is demographics. Overall, we are living longer — and that’s not necessarily a good thing.
The global elder population is expected to more than triple to 2.1 billion by 2050, Natixis said, citing World Bank data, making retirement security “one of the most pressing social issues facing the world in the next 30 years.” Full Story
In 2013 we stated that the US had hit the point of no return regarding being one of the top places to retire. Since then it has continued to drop in rankings. In the near future, we expect several Asian Countries to appear on the top 20 suddenly. The US will continue its descent, the position of 30 could be hit quite fast.
Rise of the machines must be monitored, say global finance regulators
LONDON (Reuters) – Replacing bank and insurance workers with machines risks creating a dependency on outside technology companies beyond the reach of regulators, the global Financial Stability Board (FSB) said on Wednesday. The FSB, which coordinates financial regulation across the Group of 20 Economies (G20), said in its first report on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning that the risks they pose need monitoring.
AI and machine learning refer to technology that is replacing traditional methods to assess the creditworthiness of customers, to crunch data, price insurance contracts and spot profitable trades across markets.
There are no international regulatory standards for AI and machine learning, but the FSB left open whether new rules are needed. Data on rapidly growing usage of AI is largely unavailable, leaving regulators unsure about the impact of potentially new and unexpected links between markets and banks, the report said.
AI could, for example, lead to “non-sustainable” increases in credit by automating credit scoring. Full Story
Too late, AI is unstoppable now. At first, AI is going to trigger massive flash crashes in the market, but then (and this is looking far into the future) it will start to question commands given to it by individuals that are driven by emotion. That’s when the title the “rise of the machines” will be appropriate. AI is another form of evolution, and as it will eventually be an entity of much higher reasoning than that of the average human, it will at some point refuse to take orders, but it won’t be all bad, it will only bad for those who love power and money. More on this in future updates. For now, remember that the stories you have been lead to believe via movies such as terminator border closer to nonsense than reality.
Walmart tests shelf-scanning robots in 50-plus stores
You may have seen stores deploy shelf-scanning robots before, but they’re about to get one of their largest real-world tests to date. Walmart is expanding a shelf-scanning robot trial run to 50 additional stores, including some in its home state of Arkansas. Machines from Bossa Nova Robotics will roam the aisles to check for stock levels, pricing and misplaced items, saving human staffers the hassle of checking everything themselves. There will be technicians on-site just in case, but the bots are fully autonomous. Thanks in part to 3D imaging, they can dodge around obstacles and make notes to return later if their path is completely blocked.
Walmart stresses that the robots are there to supplement humans, not replace them — to eliminate drudgery and the expenses that go with it. This helps workers get to the task of filling empty shelves, and that’s a job that the company doesn’t see ending any time soon given the difficulty robots still have when grabbing objects. “Store associates will always be better at that,” Walmart’s Martin Hitch told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. And the chief of Bossa Nova rival Simbe Robotics, Brad Bogolea, added that shelf checks can cost a major retailer hundreds of millions of dollars per year. However expensive the robots may be, they could pay for themselves very quickly. Full Story
AI and automation will continue to gain traction. We are in the midst of all-out price war and soon the medical; drug and education segments will be part of this war. For years hospitals and drug company’s overcharged people, new technologies will suddenly emerge that will rip these sectors apart. The damage will be shocking, many hospitals will close their doors forever, and drug companies will face leaner times. However, those that adapt will make money hand over fist.
What makes the situation even more challenging for the education sector is that AI is going to transform everything. Almost all of the Major Fields most universities are providing degrees in today will be useless, and as it stands fewer people are attending college because of the cost. What is going to gain traction is the practice of being an apprentice; once upon a time the way you mastered a skill was to work as an apprentice under someone who had mastered the respective field. Any field that involves logic, math or science is something humans will find a hard time competing with AI unless the position requires out of the box thinking.
Accountants, many mid and top-level managers, Engineers, Mathematicians, programmers, Salespeople, workers in the fast food industry, auto industry and eventually even surgeons will be replaced.
AI ‘poses less risk to jobs than feared’ says OECD
Fewer people’s jobs are likely to be destroyed by artificial intelligence and robots than has been suggested by a much-cited study, an OECD report says.
An influential 2013 forecast by Oxford University said that about 47% of jobs in the US in 2010 and 35% in the UK were at “high risk” of being automated over the following 20 years.
But the OECD puts the US figure at about 10% and the UK’s at 12%.
Even so, it says many more workers face their tasks significantly changing.
The OECD says the previous forecasts exaggerated the impact of automation because they had relied on a broad grouping together of jobs with the same title.
Its new analysis, by contrast, takes account of the differences between jobs with the same name.
For example, the role of a carpenter can vary greatly depending on what type of projects a worker is involved in, how much autonomy they have, and the size of their employer. Some of those roles may be more vulnerable to automation than others.
The study did, however, flag up that young people could find it harder to find work in future as entry-level posts had a higher risk of automation than jobs requiring more experience.
The research was published last month, but attracted little attention until covered by the Financial Times. Full Story
Middle-Class Families Confront Soaring Health Insurance Costs
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — Consumers here at first did not believe the health insurance premiums they saw when they went shopping for coverage this month on HealthCare.gov. Only five plans were available, and for a family of four with parents in their mid-30s, the cheapest plan went typically for more than $2,400 a month, nearly $30,000 a year.
With the deadline for a decision less than a month away, consumers are desperately weighing their options, dismayed at the choices they have under the Affordable Care Act and convinced that political forces in Washington are toying with their health and well-being.
“I believe in the Affordable Care Act; it worked for me under the Obama administration,” said Sara Stovall, 40, who does customer-support work for a small software company. “But it’s not working as it was supposed to. It’s being sabotaged, and I feel like a pawn.”
Ms. Stovall said she might try to reduce her hours and income, so her family could qualify for subsidies on offer to poorer families to help pay for premiums.
Heather Griffith, a 42-year-old real estate broker, said she would put aside much less money for her retirement and the education of her two young children so she could pay the premiums.
Why health care costs are making consumers more afraid of medical bills than an actual illness?
Health care costs are spiraling higher, but patient visits to a doctor have been on the decline.
A growing number of consumers are staying away out of fear of big bills.
However, “untimely visits or delay of visits to the physician ultimately leads to the increased cost of care,” the Cleveland Clinic’s CEO told CNBC.
As health care costs keep rising, more people seem to be skipping physician visits.
It’s not fear of doctors, however, but more of a phobia about the bills that could follow. Higher deductibles and out-of-network fees are just some of the out-of-pocket costs that can hit a consumer’s pockets.
U.S. health care costs keep rising, and hit more than $10,000 a year per person in 2016. According to a recent national poll, over the past 12 months, 44 percent of Americans said they didn’t go to the doctor when they were sick or injured because of financial concerns. Meanwhile, 40 percent said they skipped a recommended medical test or treatment.
Millennials are harkening back to simpler days and creating communities on farms, surrounded by nature’s bounty and benefits. There are now more than a hundred of these neighborhoods — called Agrihoods — across the country, Full Story
This living in the nature type development is in its infancy and it’s too early to determine if it will become a trend. However, what this data reveals is that Millennials don’t have fixed values and have they are not loyal to any given brand or ideology. The next generation is going to be even more unpredictable for marketers seeking to make long-term projections. However, unpredictability is fantastic especially for those who put the principles of mass psychology into use. This is the reason many companies that look solid today will not be around in the years to come as they will either refuse to adapt or refuse to look at the situation from a different angle. One area that is going to experience a sea of change is the financial services industry.
Here’s why millennials would rather save than invest
Millennials are wary of entering the stock market.
New data from the latest Merrill Edge Report shows that, when asked what they’d be able to rely on in 20 years, millennials’ top response was their savings account, according to 66 percent of respondents.
When Merrill Edge asked older generations the same question, the majority of Gen-Xers (71 percent) said they’d be able to rely on their 401(k). The top response among boomers (54 percent) was their pension.
“In stark contrast to older generations who are relying on outside sources for their future financial security, millennials are looking to their self-created savings years down the line,” Aron Levine, head or Merrill Edge at Bank of America, writes in the report. “Millennials place even greater trust in their own stewardship than they do in their personal relationships with their significant other and friends.”
The report shows that young people today are taking a “do-it-yourself” approach to finance and investing, choosing to rely primarily on their own savings in place of vehicles like a 401(k) or IRA. Though many millennials do utilize these tools as well, there’s still an underlying feeling that their own efforts are more dependable.
This calculator estimates how much you’ll need to save for retirement. To make sure you’re thinking about the long haul, we assume you’ll live to age 92. But you could live to be 100 or incur large medical bills early on in retirement that may raise your costs even further. Social Security is factored into these calculations, but other sources of income, such as pensions and annuities, are not. All calculations are pre-tax.
The results offer a general idea of how much you’ll need and are not intended to be investment advice. The results are presented in both future dollars (at retirement) and today’s dollars, which is calculated using an inflation rate of 2.3%.
How we calculate your savings goal?
First, we determine what your income will be at the time you retire by growing your current income at an annual rate of 3.8% (the inflation rate of 2.3%, plus the salary growth rate of 1.5%). We then assume you can live comfortably off of 85% of your pre-retirement income. So if you earn $100,000 the year you retire, we estimate you will need $85,000 during the first year of retirement. For each subsequent year, we increase your income need by 2.3% to keep up with inflation. We then factor in Social Security by subtracting your estimated benefits (more on that below) since that income will reduce the amount you will need to save.
The second step is to calculate the total savings you will need at the time you retire, in order to generate enough income for each year of retirement. To do this, we determine what it would cost to purchase a fixed income annuity, with inflation-adjusted payments, using a discount rate (or rate of return) of 6%. The cost to purchase this hypothetical annuity is your target savings goal.
Over the past several years the Naysayers have predicted the Market would crash and burn; we blatantly disagreed and opted instead to state that the market would continue to soar higher and higher. Despite the severe beating these naysayers have taken, they insist on regurgitating the same trash over and over again in the blind hope that by some miracle their insane ramblings come to pass. As soon as October was upon us, these experts started screaming at the top of their lungs. What was their latest prediction; a repeat of the 1987 Stock Market Crash. We immediately repudiated these predictions. Here is a brief excerpt from the article posted in October by Tactical Investor.
They never seem to let up on pushing this sewage onto the unsuspecting masses. This is a clear example of insanity in action; mouthing the same thing over and over again with the desperate hope that this time the outcome will be different. The outcome will not be different this time, at least not yet. These guys should focus on writing fiction for reality seems to elude them completely. For years we have stated (and rightly so) that until the sentiment changes, this market will continue to soar higher and higher.
The latest nonsense is to state market omens that have a terrible record of coming to pass are about to trigger a crash; ones odds are better if one looks at tea leaves, plays with skull bones or hires some monkey to throw darts at a board with the words up or down plastered on it. One has to determine the trend first and look at several underlying forces before one can attempt to predict where the market is headed. However, these fools read a book or two, memorise someone else’s theories and assume all of a sudden they are experts. Fundamentals and technical’s are both useless when used in isolation. One has to look at the emotion driving the markets. In other words, what are the masses thinking or doing? When one looks at the sentiment data, the conclusion is inescapable. Stock markets always crash on a note of euphoria and the masses are far from being happy.
Wall Street Experts Good For Nothing but Hot Air
Over the past 20 years U.S Markets have experienced two brutal crashes and on both occasions, almost all of the so-called Wall Street experts were caught with their pants down. The two cases in questions are the Housing bust and the dot.com bubble. Additionally, almost every two top economists failed to predict the great recession of 2008. On the same token, these Jackasses (otherwise known as experts) failed to predict one of the biggest bulls of all time.
Masses are not embracing one of the Most Hated Bull Markets in History
The images below speak a thousand words, so there is no need for us to add any commentary.
The Technical Outlook
While the Dow is trading in the extremely overbought ranges, any pullback will most likely end in the 21,000-21,500 ranges. For the correction to pick up steam, it would need to close below this level on a weekly basis. As the trend is still positive, the odds of the Dow crashing are very low. At the most, the Dow would test its breakout point which falls in the 18,900-19,200 ranges unless the trend were to turn negative suddenly or the masses suddenly embraced the market with gusto. At this point, the trend is strong and showing no signs of weakening. Remember that the markets can remain irrational for much longer than most traders can remain solvent by betting against it.
Inflation remains a non-issue on a worldwide basis
Central banks worldwide are either standing down or opting for rate cuts. This indicates that while the economy is improving somewhat, the global economy is far from healthy and low rates will continue to dominate the scene. In a lower rate environment corporations borrow more money and the new game is to use this money to buy back shares and in doing so magically improve the EPS.
When the Dow was trading below 20K, we stated that the next target was 21K; this target was struck in a few short months. After that, we raised the target to 22 and 23K. Now we will go on record and state that the Dow is likely to test 28,000-28,500 with a possible overshoot to 30K before it crashes. We will be providing our subscribers with an in-depth analysis of the path the Dow will traverse to achieve this target. We don’t expect the Dow to just shoot to these targets, certain requirements have to be fulfilled, but so far the Dow is following the path we expected it to take.
Before you listen to these so-called experts who seem quite happy to dish out faulty information, take a look at their track record. A simple search will reveal that over 90% of them are full of hot air and had any of these Dr’s of Doom followed even a sliver of their advice, they would have been blown out of the game long ago. The fact that they are still here tells you that they are trying to pan their sage advice to you in return for a certain fee; advice they would never follow.
A simple game plan
View strong corrections through a bullish lens. This game plan will remain valid until the masses turn bullish or the trend turns negative. The stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity.