Experts Making Stock Market Crash Forecasts usually know nothing

Stock Market Crash Forecasts usually know nothing

Over the past several years the Naysayers have predicted the Market would crash and burn; we blatantly disagreed and opted instead to state that the market would continue to soar higher and higher. Despite the severe beating these naysayers have taken, they insist on regurgitating the same trash over and over again in the blind hope that by some miracle their insane ramblings come to pass.  As soon as October was upon us, these experts started screaming at the top of their lungs. What was their latest prediction; a repeat of the 1987 Stock Market Crash.  We immediately repudiated these predictions. Here is a brief excerpt from the article posted in October by Tactical Investor.

They never seem to let up on pushing this sewage onto the unsuspecting masses. This is a clear example of insanity in action;  mouthing the same thing over and over again with the desperate hope that this time the outcome will be different.  The outcome will not be different this time, at least not yet. These guys should focus on writing fiction for reality seems to elude them completely. For years we have stated (and rightly so) that until the sentiment changes, this market will continue to soar higher and higher.

The latest nonsense is to state market omens that have a terrible record of coming to pass are about to trigger a crash; ones odds are better if one looks at tea leaves, plays with skull bones or hires some monkey to throw darts at a board with the words up or down plastered on it.   One has to determine the trend first and look at several underlying forces before one can attempt to predict where the market is headed. However, these fools read a book or two, memorise someone else’s theories and assume all of a sudden they are experts. Fundamentals and technical’s are both useless when used in isolation. One has to look at the emotion driving the markets. In other words, what are the masses thinking or doing? When one looks at the sentiment data, the conclusion is inescapable. Stock markets always crash on a note of euphoria and the masses are far from being happy.

Wall Street Experts Good For Nothing but Hot Air

Over the past 20 years U.S Markets have experienced two brutal crashes and on both occasions, almost all of the so-called  Wall Street experts were caught with their pants down.  The two cases in questions are the Housing bust and the dot.com bubble. Additionally, almost every two top economists failed to predict the great recession of 2008.  On the same token, these Jackasses (otherwise known as experts) failed to predict one of the biggest bulls of all time.

Masses are not embracing one of the Most Hated Bull Markets in History

The images below speak a thousand words, so there is no need for us to add any commentary.

Bullish Neutral Bearish Index

Anxiety Index

 

The Technical Outlook

Dow chart November 16th

While the Dow is trading in the extremely overbought ranges, any pullback will most likely end in the 21,000-21,500 ranges.  For the correction to pick up steam, it would need to close below this level on a weekly basis.  As the trend is still positive, the odds of the Dow crashing are very low. At the most, the Dow would test its breakout point which falls in the 18,900-19,200 ranges unless the trend were to turn negative suddenly or the masses suddenly embraced the market with gusto.  At this point, the trend is strong and showing no signs of weakening.  Remember that the markets can remain irrational for much longer than most traders can remain solvent by betting against it.

Inflation remains a non-issue on a worldwide basis

Central banks worldwide are either standing down or opting for rate cuts.  This indicates that while the economy is improving somewhat, the global economy is far from healthy and low rates will continue to dominate the scene.  In a lower rate environment corporations borrow more money and the new game is to use this money to buy back shares and in doing so magically improve the EPS.

Conclusion

When the Dow was trading below 20K, we stated that the next target was 21K; this target was struck in a few short months. After that, we raised the target to 22 and 23K.  Now we will go on record and state that the Dow is likely to test 28,000-28,500 with a possible overshoot to 30K before it crashes.  We will be providing our subscribers with an in-depth analysis of the path the Dow will traverse to achieve this target.    We don’t expect the Dow to just shoot to these targets, certain requirements have to be fulfilled, but so far the Dow is following the path we expected it to take.

Before you listen to these so-called experts who seem quite happy to dish out faulty information, take a look at their track record. A simple search will reveal that over 90% of them are full of hot air and had any of these Dr’s of Doom followed even a sliver of their advice, they would have been blown out of the game long ago. The fact that they are still here tells you that they are trying to pan their sage advice to you in return for a certain fee; advice they would never follow.

A simple game plan

View strong corrections through a bullish lens. This game plan will remain valid until the masses turn bullish or the trend turns negative.  The stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity.

 

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

China Seeks Foreign Help in Risky Work Finding Oil in Disputed Sea

China Seeks Foreign Help in Risky Work Finding Oil in Disputed Sea

Beijing is looking for foreign contractors to help find oil and gas under the South China Sea but expects to meet resistance because other governments contest its claims and any discoveries may bring low returns.

China’s state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp. issued a tender last week for foreign companies to join it in exploring for fossil fuels in 22 tracts south of the country’s coastline. The blocks spanning a combined 47,270 square kilometers cover waters contested by Taiwan and Vietnam. Vietnam has been particularly outspoken since the 1970s about its claims.

Complicated matter

Foreign oil companies eyeing the bids, which close in September, probably worry that their ties to the Chinese maritime claim could spoil their reputation among rival South China Sea claimants or that any oil found would be a disputed asset, analysts say.
South China Sea Territorial Claims

“Given the area in question, there are risks around the sovereignty issue,” said Thomas Pugh, commodities economist with Capital Economics in London. “If they enter a deal with China and Chinese firms, they could risk not being allowed to work with other countries in the region who are disputing ownership of the area.”

Disputes over ownership continue

Discoveries themselves could also be contested by other countries, said Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence. Full Story

The Chinese government is looking to foreign businesses to help find oil and natural gas under the South China Sea.

Yet China expects to meet resistance because other countries dispute Chinese territorial claims to much of the sea. In addition, observers say any oil and gas discoveries might not be very profitable.

Last week, China’s state-operated China National Offshore Oil Corporation made an appeal for foreign help. The company said it wants to work with foreign businesses in exploring for fossil fuels in 22 areas south of the country’s coast.

When combined, that represents more than 47,000 square kilometers of territory. The governments in Taiwan and Vietnam also claim those waters. Vietnam has been outspoken about its claims since the 1970s.

Foreign oil companies are now studying the Chinese offer, which closes in September. Experts say the companies may be worried that any work they do for China could hurt their ability to work for other countries. And they say the companies may also be worried that any oil or gas they find could be claimed by China’s neighbors.

Thomas Pugh works for the Capital Economics research service in London. He says if foreign companies start working with “China and Chinese firms, they could risk not being allowed to work with other countries…who are disputing ownership of the area.”

Raymond Wu is the managing director of e-telligence, a Taipei-based service that specializes in political risk. He also notes that any oil and gas discoveries could be claimed by other countries. Full Story

Ant Financial sees rich opportunities

Ant Financial sees rich opportunities
Ant Financial Services, China’s largest online payment operator, sees mobile wallet applications becoming the next big technology trend in the emerging markets of South America and Africa.
Kenny Man, head of international investment for Ant Financial, said over the next five years, emerging markets including those in South America and Africa will be priority for the company’s global partnerships. A clear trend is emerging whereby mobile wallet applications, and financial transactions done over mobile internet, are set for widespread acceptance in emerging market economies.
Over the past three years Ant Financial, the fintech affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding has done nine partnerships. Within Asia, Ant Financial has forged partnerships with local companies in South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Hong Kong, Man said, adding that the company will continue to expand its footprint in the region.
“China has leapfrogged over traditional credit cards to the mobile wallet. That same change will be even more radical and faster in different parts of the world, whereby people will embrace mobile payments,” Man said.
Ant Financial, which just completed a US$14 billion series-C funding round in June from leading investors including Temasek, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Carlyle Group, and Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, formally known as GIC, has been increasingly active in expanding its technology and know-how through partnership in emerging Asia. Full Story

Ant Financial Services Group said on Monday it will extend its indigenous mobile payment technologies to economies along the Belt and Road Initiative and unveil a number of Alipay-like services this year.

The plan marks the company’s accelerated pace in expanding globally, adding to the existing five Asian markets where the financial technology powerhouse has announced investment plans since 2015.

“Technology exports will effectively save five to eight years’ time of our local partners in developing new technologies and conducting feasibility tests,” said Jia Hang, senior director of international business at Ant Financial.

The firm is counting on partners outside China to bring its model of online finance and local services to emerging Asian markets, where a substantial number of the population have no access to banking services and are underserved by traditional financial institutions.

Through strategic investments, the company can tap into the vast resources of one of the world’s most populous regions, Jia noted.

For instance, its investment in Thailand’s Ascend Money, an arm of the agricultural-to-telecom conglomerate, can give them access to local users and merchants.

In its latest overseas move, Ant Financial linked up this month with Indonesia’s second-largest media firm Emtek to form a payment platform within BlackBerry’s messaging service, which covers 63 million users in the country. Full Story

Ten years ago, Alipay was just a rapidly growing online payments service. Today, Alipay is the modern gateway to Ant Financial’s ecosystem of financial services, from wealth management and insurance to lending and credit scores.

Ant Financial was initially launched to support online payments. Today, it’s the largest fintech player globally.

As the financial affiliate of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, Ant Financial encapsulates a fintech ecosystem that starts with its dominant mobile payments service, Alipay, and expands into credit scoring, wealth management, insurance, and lending.
At $150B, the current valuation of Ant trumps the market capitalizations of leading financial institutions around the world, from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to Banco Santander and The Royal Bank of Canada.
As China undergoes a cashless revolution, many view Ant as a mobile payments company.

But Ant — which today counts nearly 600M Alipay users, plus 110M+ Alipay partners across 15 countries — is much bigger than payments alone.

100M+ users use all 5 of Ant’s key functions, meaning that they not only use Ant’s payments function to make everyday purchases, but also use Ant to take out loans, buy insurance, check credit scores, and invest assets in Ant’s money market fund — Yu’e Bao.

That’s not to say Ant doesn’t face its share of challenges. In the last year, Chinese regulators have clamped down on China’s burgeoning fintech sector. Full Story

 

United Airlines CEO: No one will be fired in passenger-dragging incident

United Airlines incident

United Airlines will not fire employees involved in the recent dragging of a passenger from his seat, an incident CEO Oscar Munoz on Tuesday called “a system failure.”

Executives of the Chicago-based airline sought to assure investors that United is working to learn from the recent uproar over viral videos of Chicago Aviation Department security officers dragging Dr. David Dao from a Louisville-bound flight. Dao was removed from the plane at O’Hare International Airport after he refused to give up his seat to make room for airline employees.

“This is a true learning opportunity and will ultimately prove to be a watershed moment for our company as we work harder than ever to put our customers at the center of everything we do,” Munoz said on a conference call discussing the airline’s quarterly earnings.

There was “never consideration” of firing an employee over the incident, he said.

The airline is reviewing policies around handling oversold flights to prevent similar incidents, including talking to some passengers and employees about how the airline can take a more “commonsense approach,” Munoz said.

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It’s too soon to say whether the April 9 incident has affected customers’ willingness to travel with United, particularly since it happened during the week before Easter, when the airline typically sees fewer passengers, executives said. Full Story

 

United Continental CEO Oscar Munoz said Tuesday that no one will be fired for the airline’s recent debacle involving a passenger being dragged off an overbooked flight.

“The buck stops here. And I’m sure there was lots of conjecture about me personally,” the apologetic CEO said on the company’s earnings call Tuesday. “Again, it was a system failure across various areas, so no, there was never a consideration for firing an employee.”

The company has been embroiled in controversy ever since a video surfaced of Dr. David Dao being dragged off an overbooked flight in Chicago.

The fiasco has hurt shares of United Continental, which dropped about 4 percent on Tuesday, despite the company reporting better-than-expected earnings late Monday.

Munoz once again apologized for the confrontation, saying, “The incident on Flight 3411 has been a humbling learning experience for all of us here at United and for me in particular. In addition to apologizing to Dr. Dao, as well as all of the passengers aboard, I also want to apologize to all our customers. You can and should expect more from us and as CEO, I take full responsibility for making this right,” he added during Tuesday’s conference call.

Munoz reiterated that United will make policy changes, including not using law enforcement to take passengers off a flight unless there is a security issue and requiring that crews be booked at least an hour before takeoff. Full Story