Beijing (AFP) – Thousands of spectators filled a stadium in China to watch 10 suspects be sentenced to death for crimes ranging from drug-dealing to homicide before they were taken away to be executed at the weekend. An online video of the rare public trial, held in southern Guangdong province on Saturday, showed the handcuffed suspects paraded around a track by uniformed police officers as onlookers watched from the sidelines.
The convicts also stood on a podium as their sentences were read over loudspeakers, while officials sat on a stage flanked by military guards. Rights groups say China executes more people than any other country, but Beijing does not give figures on the death penalty, regarding the statistics as state secrets.
A public announcement last week from Lufeng City People’s Court had invited citizens to sit in on the “open-air stadium trial”, as it was dubbed by the state-run Global Times. Beijing News, which circulated the trial video along. Full Story
Political correctness is going away, and this trend as we stated recently is set to last at least 15 years. Violence levels, for now, will continue to soar, but the response from governments especially in Asia and Eastern Europe is going to be just as brutal. The West will eventually join the pack. A leader is set to emerge that is going to make Trump look like a very polite gentleman.
McDonald’s has cold brew now, and what is coffee anymore?
n fairness, it was only a matter of time before the cold brew craze found its way to the massive fast-food chain. McDonald’s debuted its own cold brew beverage in two varieties: frozen coffee and frappe. This is the part where you swear you’ll never try it, and then give in four days later because you’re “curious.” Full Story
A politician is warning her fellow Russians not to do sex with foreigners during the World Cup
Tamara Pletnyova, the head of the Russian Duma’s Family, Women, and Children Committee, says to be especially careful if a potential father is “of a different race.” Her comments come as Russia is desperately trying to convince the world that it’s ready to tackle the racism that many are predicting will come along with the World Cup. Incidentally: Happy World Cup day to you! Full Story
There’s going to be a Fortnite World Cup with $100 million in prize money
If you’re familiar with the fandom of the video game, you might say, “Of course, this was inevitable.” For the uninitiated, Fortnite is a multiplatform game where 100 players vie for resources and compete against one another to be the last person standing. It’s also the reason you haven’t seen some of your loved ones in weeks. The Fortnite tournament will be open to all players, with qualifying tournaments starting in fall 2018. Full Story
The Temporal Tapestry: Unraveling Present Bias Psychology in Modern Investment Decisions Present bias psychology, a cognitive tendency that leads individuals ...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could ...
BOJ can’t exit stimulus when inflation below 1 pct – BOJ Gov candidate Ito
TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan likely won’t be able to exit its massive stimulus programme while inflation is hovering below 1 percent, Takatoshi Ito, an academic who is a potential candidate to become the next BOJ governor, said on Wednesday. “What’s important is for inflation to accelerate, which would give (the BOJ) quite some flexibility in guiding monetary policy,” Ito, a Columbia University professor, told a seminar in Tokyo.
The BOJ has already laid the groundwork for normalising monetary policy by revamping its policy framework last September and gradually slowing its bond purchases, though raising its yield targets would be some time away, he said. “While inflation is hovering below 1 percent, it would be hard for the BOJ to exit (from ultra-loose monetary policy),” said Ito, who is considered a candidate to succeed BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his five-year term ends in April next year. Full Story
As predicted the trend stated this would happen. More central bankers will join the inflation is not an issue club.
Amazon is invading finance without really trying
Many people believe that big technology companies will soon become major competitors to traditional banks. But Amazon has invaded their turf without offering many financial services—its mammoth cloud-computing business is instead reshaping how the financial industry works.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the biggest provider of cloud computing, which has “massively” lowered barriers to entry for financial startups, according to Antony Jenkins, the former Barclays CEO turned fintech entrepreneur. He says tech firms used to raise millions of dollars just to buy servers; now, people who want to take on banks can use the tech giant’s cloud to quickly set up systems. Full Story
Watch what will happen when they start to attack. And what nobody is talking about is China. Alibaba is going to rip this sector apart. They are already huge in Asia with Ant financial. Banks are going to face massive competition. And after that, the next sector to get ripped will be the medical sector. Many businesses that exist today will not be around ten years from today.
New York City’s Empty Storefronts And The $15 Minimum Wage
“Why Is New York Full Of Empty Stores?”
That’s the question posed by the New York Times editorial board in today’s paper, as it worries about a “scourge of store closings that afflicts one section of the city after another, notably in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn.”
The editorial offers few answers to its question and at least one bad solution in the form of a new “vacancy tax” for building owners with unoccupied storefronts. But perhaps the most notable omission from the Times’ editorial is the board’s own role in exacerbating the city’s troubles through its advocacy for a $15 minimum wage.
The concerns about retail employment aren’t anecdotal: According to Labor Department data, 2016 was the first year since 2009 where New York City’s retail trade. Full Story
A trend in motion is unstoppable. Trying to control a trend is like trying to fight an anaconda with a toothpick. Wage Deflation is here to stay, and it’s going to gather incredible momentum in the months and years to come.
The Temporal Tapestry: Unraveling Present Bias Psychology in Modern Investment Decisions Present bias psychology, a cognitive tendency that leads individuals ...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could ...
Austria went to polls on Oct 15 to choose its next leader. After a decisive victory for Sebastian Kurz, nationalist politics seems to be coming into the picture again. With the counting almost completed, excluding those who voted out of their home districts, People’s Party took away 31.6% of the votes. Social Democrats secured the second place with 26.9% votes, while far-right Freedom managed 26%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaWGCaNj1Vw
Far right politics seems to be gaining steam in Europe. Despite Geert Wilders of Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of France failing to emerge victorious in their respective elections, the support they received shows that Europeans are divided when it comes to political orientation in their respective countries.
Moreover, last month in Germany, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 12.6% votes as Germans opposed Merkel’s friendly refugee policy and her handling of the 2015 migrant crisis. Full Story
The Alt right is adjusting and adapting very fast; they will move towards the centre to gain control, once in they will implement their agenda with frightening speed, but what will be even more shocking is that the majority of the people will support this stance. The trend of polarisation continues to gather momentum.. A new powerful and very charismatic person will suddenly appear in Europe.
Polish president sharply condemns weekend nationalist march
The Polish president has sharply condemned expressions of xenophobia and racism at a weekend march by nationalists, saying there is no place in the country for anti-Semitism and “sick nationalism.”
It was the strongest and first unequivocal condemnation by a representative of the country’s conservative leadership of the white supremacist and racist views expressed by some of the 60,000 people who took part in a march on the Independence Day holiday Saturday in Warsaw.
Government members over the past two days had mostly described participants as patriots and played down the nature of the xenophobic messages. Though many families took part in the march, the event was organized by far-right groups and some carried banners with slogans like “White Europe of brotherly nations” or had flags with Celtic crosses, a white supremacist symbol.
There were also anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim slogans and chants. One large banner read “Deus Vult” in Gothic lettering. Latin for “God wills it,” it was a cry used during the First Crusade in the 11th century, when a Christian army from Europe slaughtered Jews and Muslims in the Holy Land. In recent years, it has been used by the radical right to show hostility to Islam. Full Story
The outlook will worsen before things get better; we are at stage 3, and this cycle has 7-10 levels.
Sweden will ‘never go back’ to the days of mass immigration
The Prime Minister of Sweden has vowed his country will ‘never go back’ to recent levels of mass immigration after it emerged the terrorist who killed four people in a truck attack was a failed asylum seeker.
Stefan Löfven pledged to change his country’s liberal attitude, insisting the massive influx allowed during the 2015 migrant crisis would never happen again.
Rakhmat Akilov, from Uzbekistan, hijacked the lorry and deliberately drove into pedestrians on central Stockholm’s main shopping street on Friday afternoon. Full Story
This story and the one below confirm the trend that we first spoke of in 2015.
Norway deported record number in 2016
Through the end of November, Norwegian police deported a total of 7,312 people who were living illegally in Norway, according to figures released on Friday by the National Police Immigration Service Norway (Politiets Utlendingsenhet).
That’s the highest number ever, at around five percent more than last year.
“This is a figure that shows that there have been many who do not have a legitimate claim to asylum who have stayed here and failed to leave the country, and that’s why it is necessary for the police to do the work they have done throughout the year,” State Secretary Fabian Stang told broadcaster NRK.
“It’s always brutal when one is forced to use the police to get people to do what they are required to,” added Stang, who is secretary for Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug.
More than a fourth of those who were forced to leave the country were also slapped with criminal charges. Most of those were from Romania, Poland and Lithuania. Nationals from those three countries accounted for 43 percent of the 2,041 convicted criminals who were deported. Full Story
It’s not only Muslims that are being targeted; all immigrants are paying the price now.
EU migrant crisis: Austria can deport asylum seekers, court says
The case, brought by Austria and Slovenia, could affect the future of several hundred people who arrived during the migrant crisis of 2015-16. The ruling concerns two Afghan families and a Syrian who applied for asylum after leaving Croatia.
The court says it is Croatia’s responsibility to decide their cases. The crisis unfolded during the summer of 2015, as one million migrants and refugees travelled through the Western Balkans. Under the so-called Dublin regulation, refugees typically have to seek asylum in the first EU state they reach. But Germany suspended the Dublin regulation for Syrian refugees, halting deportations to the countries they arrived in.
From August 2015, hundreds – and sometimes thousands – arrived in Austria every day, initially via Hungary and later through Slovenia.
Many wanted to travel on to Germany, but around 90,000 applied for asylum in Austria, equivalent to about 1% of its population. Full Story
We stated that this would come to pass; in fact, we stated that the open hand would turn into a massive raise fist. The law of balancing states that the equation must balance; no matter how long it takes, the equation will always balance. We expect the outlook to darken a lot more before it stabilises.
The Temporal Tapestry: Unraveling Present Bias Psychology in Modern Investment Decisions Present bias psychology, a cognitive tendency that leads individuals ...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could ...
For African migrants, ‘extreme vetting’ from U.S. to Europe slams the door shut
The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown was only the beginning for Africans struggling to flee war and famine. New restrictions within Africa and opaque deals between European countries and African regimes could have a much more dramatic effect soon, Geoffrey York explains
On the dangerous journey to Europe this year, hundreds of African migrants have died a horrific death at sea. They die from hypothermia or fuel inhalation, thirst or hunger in drifting boats, or suffocation in overcrowded cargo holds. Hundreds have drowned when their flimsy dinghies capsize.
More than 1,000 migrants, the majority of them Africans, have perished in the Mediterranean in the first four months of this year alone – far more than during the same period of last year. Among the dead: more than 150 children, according to Unicef.
Despite the terrible risks, more than 37,000 asylum-seekers, mainly from Africa, have survived the ordeal and reached Europe from the Libyan coast this year, including about 9,000 during the Easter weekend alone.
With the Balkan migration route through Greece now largely shut down, the flow of people on the Libyan route to Europe has expanded by about 35 percent from last year. It’s an exodus that continues to alarm many European governments, triggering a series of aggressive new measures to clamp down on migration. Full Story
The stance in the West is going to toughen continuously when it comes to dealing with immigrants.
U.S. Army Now Taking Applicants With Histories Of Mental Illness, Drug Abuse And Self-Mutilation
During America’s 16-year War On Terror, the military has often struggled to handle mental health problems among fighters after rises in suicides and violence against innocent civilians. More than 200 active-duty servicemembers have died by suicide every year since 2008, according to Pentagon data. A study published this year by JAMA Psychiatry found that suicide attempts in the military are often infectious and help push even more recruits to try taking their own lives.
The latest mental health controversy began last week after Devin Kelley, a dishonorably discharged former Air Force member, shot and killed 26 people during a church service in Sutherland Springs, Texas. Kelley died after the rampage from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, police said. Full Story
A great way to ensure that violence levels will continue to soar in the U.S. Imagine individuals with these behavioural patterns being trained to use lethal weapons and then eventually being released into society.
Why retiring in America has become less attractive?
In a worldwide study, the U.S. fell to No. 17 (down three spots from last year) in the Natixis Global Asset Management Global Retirement Index. The index ranks 43 mainly developed countries on their ability to offer its citizens a secure retirement. Norway, Switzerland and Sweden top the list.
Why did the U.S. have such a dismal showing?
The U.S. took hits in income equality, health care spending and life expectancy. While America may have the fifth-highest income per capita, we have the sixth lowest score for income equality, suggesting that retirement saving is difficult for average workers. Our life expectancy fell, yet we spend the most on health care compared to the other countries analyzed in the index. A big part of the problem is demographics. Overall, we are living longer — and that’s not necessarily a good thing.
The global elder population is expected to more than triple to 2.1 billion by 2050, Natixis said, citing World Bank data, making retirement security “one of the most pressing social issues facing the world in the next 30 years.” Full Story
In 2013 we stated that the US had hit the point of no return regarding being one of the top places to retire. Since then it has continued to drop in rankings. In the near future, we expect several Asian Countries to appear on the top 20 suddenly. The US will continue its descent, the position of 30 could be hit quite fast.
Middle-Class Families Confront Soaring Health Insurance Costs
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — Consumers here at first did not believe the health insurance premiums they saw when they went shopping for coverage this month on HealthCare.gov. Only five plans were available, and for a family of four with parents in their mid-30s, the cheapest plan went typically for more than $2,400 a month, nearly $30,000 a year.
With the deadline for a decision less than a month away, consumers are desperately weighing their options, dismayed at the choices they have under the Affordable Care Act and convinced that political forces in Washington are toying with their health and well-being.
“I believe in the Affordable Care Act; it worked for me under the Obama administration,” said Sara Stovall, 40, who does customer-support work for a small software company. “But it’s not working as it was supposed to. It’s being sabotaged, and I feel like a pawn.”
Ms. Stovall said she might try to reduce her hours and income, so her family could qualify for subsidies on offer to poorer families to help pay for premiums.
Heather Griffith, a 42-year-old real estate broker, said she would put aside much less money for her retirement and the education of her two young children so she could pay the premiums.
Why health care costs are making consumers more afraid of medical bills than an actual illness?
Health care costs are spiraling higher, but patient visits to a doctor have been on the decline.
A growing number of consumers are staying away out of fear of big bills.
However, “untimely visits or delay of visits to the physician ultimately leads to the increased cost of care,” the Cleveland Clinic’s CEO told CNBC.
As health care costs keep rising, more people seem to be skipping physician visits.
It’s not fear of doctors, however, but more of a phobia about the bills that could follow. Higher deductibles and out-of-network fees are just some of the out-of-pocket costs that can hit a consumer’s pockets.
U.S. health care costs keep rising, and hit more than $10,000 a year per person in 2016. According to a recent national poll, over the past 12 months, 44 percent of Americans said they didn’t go to the doctor when they were sick or injured because of financial concerns. Meanwhile, 40 percent said they skipped a recommended medical test or treatment.
Your total costs for health care: Premium, deductible & out-of-pocket costs
When choosing a plan, it’s a good idea to think about your total health care costs, not just the bill (the “premium”) you pay to your insurance company every month.
Other amounts, sometimes called “out-of-pocket” costs, have a big impact on your total spending on health care – sometimes more than the premium itself.
Beyond your monthly premium: Deductible and out-of-pocket costs
Deductible: How much you have to spend for covered health services before your insurance company pays anything (except free preventive services)
Copayments and coinsurance: Payments you make each time you get a medical service after reaching your deductible
Out-of-pocket maximum: The most you have to spend for covered services in a year. After you reach this amount, the insurance company pays 100% for covered services.
Millennials are harkening back to simpler days and creating communities on farms, surrounded by nature’s bounty and benefits. There are now more than a hundred of these neighborhoods — called Agrihoods — across the country, Full Story
This living in the nature type development is in its infancy and it’s too early to determine if it will become a trend. However, what this data reveals is that Millennials don’t have fixed values and have they are not loyal to any given brand or ideology. The next generation is going to be even more unpredictable for marketers seeking to make long-term projections. However, unpredictability is fantastic especially for those who put the principles of mass psychology into use. This is the reason many companies that look solid today will not be around in the years to come as they will either refuse to adapt or refuse to look at the situation from a different angle. One area that is going to experience a sea of change is the financial services industry.
Here’s why millennials would rather save than invest
Millennials are wary of entering the stock market.
New data from the latest Merrill Edge Report shows that, when asked what they’d be able to rely on in 20 years, millennials’ top response was their savings account, according to 66 percent of respondents.
When Merrill Edge asked older generations the same question, the majority of Gen-Xers (71 percent) said they’d be able to rely on their 401(k). The top response among boomers (54 percent) was their pension.
“In stark contrast to older generations who are relying on outside sources for their future financial security, millennials are looking to their self-created savings years down the line,” Aron Levine, head or Merrill Edge at Bank of America, writes in the report. “Millennials place even greater trust in their own stewardship than they do in their personal relationships with their significant other and friends.”
The report shows that young people today are taking a “do-it-yourself” approach to finance and investing, choosing to rely primarily on their own savings in place of vehicles like a 401(k) or IRA. Though many millennials do utilize these tools as well, there’s still an underlying feeling that their own efforts are more dependable.
This calculator estimates how much you’ll need to save for retirement. To make sure you’re thinking about the long haul, we assume you’ll live to age 92. But you could live to be 100 or incur large medical bills early on in retirement that may raise your costs even further. Social Security is factored into these calculations, but other sources of income, such as pensions and annuities, are not. All calculations are pre-tax.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxabThkIe5c
The results offer a general idea of how much you’ll need and are not intended to be investment advice. The results are presented in both future dollars (at retirement) and today’s dollars, which is calculated using an inflation rate of 2.3%.
How we calculate your savings goal?
First, we determine what your income will be at the time you retire by growing your current income at an annual rate of 3.8% (the inflation rate of 2.3%, plus the salary growth rate of 1.5%). We then assume you can live comfortably off of 85% of your pre-retirement income. So if you earn $100,000 the year you retire, we estimate you will need $85,000 during the first year of retirement. For each subsequent year, we increase your income need by 2.3% to keep up with inflation. We then factor in Social Security by subtracting your estimated benefits (more on that below) since that income will reduce the amount you will need to save.
The second step is to calculate the total savings you will need at the time you retire, in order to generate enough income for each year of retirement. To do this, we determine what it would cost to purchase a fixed income annuity, with inflation-adjusted payments, using a discount rate (or rate of return) of 6%. The cost to purchase this hypothetical annuity is your target savings goal.
Bearish vs Bullish; outlook for a stock market bull is much stronger
Flashback; Dow today looks like Dow yesteryear. The pattern the Dow is tracing is jarringly similar to that of 2011. If history is going to serve as a guidepost, then the Dow could be ready to roar as opposed to being down for the count. When the markets were plunging in 2011, the same question was posed. Is the Dow going to crash, is the bull over? Turns out that the so-called crash was nothing but a hiccup in what turned out to be one of the most massive Bull Runs of all time. Now we are faced with the same paradigm, and once again the talking heads (many who actually have the audacity to call themselves experts) are marching to the same drumbeat and chanting the same song of doom.
Central banks created an Alternate reality
We have repeatedly stated over the years that we are living in an era of lies and deceit, where the laws of reality have been suspended and master of deception (A.K.A central bankers) have helped create an alternate reality. In this reality, savers are punished and speculators are rewarded. Markets have been manipulated for an extraordinary period of time by artificially holding down interest rates for a record period of time.
As we live in an era of lies and deceit, where rampant manipulation is the order of the day; worse still, no one is contesting this manipulation. The masses have embraced that this is their destiny and surrendered to this new market norm.
Hot money rewards speculators punishes savers
This new norm rewards speculators and punishes savers. Under such circumstances, it makes no sense to focus on Bull vs bear market argument. Instead, focus on the Stock Market bull aspect only.
The laws of reality have been suspended (courtesy of the masters of deception, otherwise known as the friendly Fed), the markets will only crash if access to easy money is eliminated. This hot money is the main driving force behind these markets and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. Against this backdrop of trickery and dishonesty, normal market rules cease to apply.
Sentiment not bullish; all strong corrections should be treated as buying opportunities
our contention has been that every major correction for the past several years is nothing but the market letting out a well-deserved dose of steam; a massive crash is not the makings; at least not yet. One day the markets will crash, but as this market is being propped up a by hot money, anything and everything will be done to prevent the markets from crashing. If there was any dose of freedom left in these markets, they would have crashed long ago. Therefore, once again, do not waste time on the Bull vs bear market theme; instead, pay attention to the trend. As the trend is bullish the markets are expected to trend much higher.
There is a stark difference between thinking you know what will happen and from knowing what is going to happen. Mass psychology clearly states that markets usually run into a brick wall when the Crowd is Euphoric and chanting “Kumbaya my love”. This is not the case yet and sentiment is far from the euphoric zone. This is one of the most hated bull markets in history.
Bearish vs Bullish; It’s 2011 all over again
The predictions that Dow was destined for destruction during the correction of 2011 might have appeared erudite in nature. Those predictions, now in retrospect, sound more like the ravings of a lunatic. Be wary when the masses are joyous and Joyous when they are not, that in essence is the most basic tenet of mass psychology.
Dow Index Pattern in 2011
In 2011, the from high to low the Dow shed roughly 16.2% or 2,070 points. Now, depending on your entry point the experience could have ranged from being mild to crash like in nature. If you purchased right at the top, then the word crash was probably flashing through your mind. Just because you think it’s a crash does not necessarily signify that your perceptions, that are being overwhelmed by fear are correct.
All media outlets were busy flooding the waves with stories that extremely pessimistic in nature. Misery loves company and stupidity demands it. Consumer confidence was not strong, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded, manufacturing was slowing down, and the list goes on. The 3rd quarter ended and the 4th quarter began and all those bogeyman stories well proved to be just that.
Markets climb a wall of worry
In 2011, the Dow ended the year on a positive note, defying all the predictions of disaster. Three months into the new year (20120, the Dow soared to a series of new highs. Like cockroaches, the naysayers vanished into the woodwork waiting for another day to sing the same old monotonous song, buoyant that time would make the masses forget the old proclamations and embrace the new ones; this falls dangerously close to the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. So far the outcome appears to be the same and if the pattern is repeated, then these chaps are going to get clobbered.
Outlook for the Dow 2017 and beyond
During the so-called market crash phase that started in August, the Dow from high to low shed approximately 16.3%. Strikingly close to the 16.2% that the Dow gave up during the 3rd quarter of 2011. So far, in the 4th quarter, all the major market indices are faring much better as was the case back in 2011. In the 4th quarter, the Dow has tacked on almost 5%.
Bearish vs Bullish; there is no case for a Bear market; take a look at this chart
The VIX, which is an index that measures fear blasted as it was being chased by the hounds of hell. ItX surged to a new five-year high, pointedly illustrating that the masses were hysterical. Panic is the secret code name for opportunity. Mass psychology clearly indicates that when the crowds panic, the astute investor should be ready to jump in.
The bullish case for the Dow index in 2017
A host of technical indicators is still trading in the extremely oversold ranges.
Our trend indicator is dangerously close to triggering a new buy signal. The fact that it did not move into the sell zone validated that the correction was nothing but a market letting out some well-deserved steam.
Inflation continues to come in at the low end
Bearish vs Bullish outlook; here is our game plan
Fear has to be avoided under any circumstance when it comes to investing. It is a detestable emotion that just sucks you dry. It takes and gives nothing back in return. When the crowd panics, one should resist the urge to become one with fear and the crowd. We are not in the jungle and fear is a useless emotion when it comes to making money in the markets. Get rid of it or it will get rid of you. Fear is a parasitic emotion; the only good parasite is a dead parasite. So shoot to kill when it comes to fear
To break even for the year, the Dow only needs to trade approximately 600 points higher. If examines the entire journey (up and down) the Dow traversed from August to Oct, the count comes in at roughly 5000 points. Examined from this angle, 600 points does not amount to that much; the Dow still has roughly three months to achieve this objective.
The Trend supports a bull market but ride up is expected to be volatile.
The V-indicator is trading well above the danger zone; 1100 points higher to be precise. This means that extreme volatility is going to be the order of the day. One should not expect the ride up to be smooth. We have a fair amount of resistance in the 17300-17400 ranges. The ideal set up would be for the Dow would trade in these ranges, with a possible overshoot to 17,600 and then proceed to test 16,500-16,600 ranges.
Bear in mind that the above targets should serve as rough guideposts. We never focus on trying to identify the exact bottom or top, a task we think is best left to fools with an inordinate appetite for pain. The game plan should be to view all strong pullback as buying opportunities. Line up the stocks you love, and then use strong pullbacks to open new positions in them.
Dow Dejavu? When one examines both the patterns (2011 and 2015); the answer appears to be “yes”
What will you do? Wait for this event to pass and then reminisce over what you should have or could have done, or will you muster the courage to act decisively.
This Bull Market is universally disliked because it’s being artificially Propped
Throughout this bull-run, a plethora of reasons have been laid out to indicate why this bull should have ended years ago. Mind you most of those reasons are valid, but that is where the bucket stops. Being right does not equate to making money on Wall Street. In fact, the opposite usually applies. The Fed recreated all the rules by flooding the markets with money and creating and maintaining an environment that fosters speculation.
This is the most hated bull market in history is because logic states it should crash. In the 2008-2009 volume on the NYSE was in the 8-11 billion ranges and sometimes it surged to 12 billion. Before that, every year, the volume continued to rise, this indicates market participation. From early 2010 volume just vanished, it dropped to the 2-3 billion ranges and even lower on some days. Hence, all market technicians and students of the markets assumed that the markets would tank as markets cannot trend higher on low volume and that is where they erred.
No sellers around
The US government stepped in and started to support the market directly that is why volume dropped so dramatically. However as there were no sellers, the markets drifted upwards. Later on, they got the corporate world in on the scam. They set up the environment that propelled corporations to buy back their shares by borrowing money for next to nothing and then using this trick to inflate their EPS, without doing any work or even increasing the profitability of the company. Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you
Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you astray.In between a few minor corrections were allowed to transpire almost all of which took place on ever lower volume, to create the illusion that there was some semblance of free market forces at play.
Dark Pools helping this Bull Market Trend Higher
We also have something known as Dark Pools, this, in essence, allows big companies to purchase large blocks of shares without the trade showing up on the NYSE or any other major exchanges. In essence, it gives the government an avenue to manipulate the markets without actually leaving a footprint. As the US can print as much money as it wants, this is a perfect backdrop to do whatever it wants. By the way, don’t believe the hogwash that our debt is only 18.9 trillion. There is no real mechanism in place to check how much money the US creates. Nobody is allowed to audit the Feds books.
Fed’s objective is to devalue the US dollar
The Fed is hell bent on forcing everyone to speculate, and that is why we have moved into the next stage of the currency war games and the era of negative interest rates. Negative rates will eventually force the most conservative of players to take their money out of the banks and speculate. This process will be akin to another massive stimulus and will provide the bedrock for another huge rally.
Make a list of stocks that you would like to own and use strong pullbacks to add to or open new positions in. Some examples are OA, AMZN, BABA, GOOG, CALM, CHL, etc.
Video illustrates why this Hated Bull Market is destined to trend higher
Stock Market Fear and Greed are the primary driving force behind all markets
Stock Market Investing is all about not allowing one’s emotions to do the Talking; once your emotions start talking your money starts walking away from you. The financial crisis of 2008 scarred many individuals and scared away even more; add in the Great Recession, and one can see that the average Joe can come up with many reasons to avoid the stock market. However simple market sentiment analysis could have saved many a person from losing a significant portion of their wealth. To make matters worse, the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, and wages in most instances are dropping instead of rising which means that many Americans have little to no disposable income left after expenses. Don’t for one second believe the twisted statistics issued by the BLS (Bureau of labour department); those statistics are on par with toilet paper.
Most individuals assume that they need a lot of money to invest in the markets
Stock Market Fear: Individuals making $30,000 or less per year are more likely to avoid the stock market, citing insufficient funds as one of the main reasons. There appears to be a misconception in thinking that one needs a lot of money to invest in the markets. Nothing could be further from the truth. One can start off with small amounts and slowly add to this base over the years.; the power of compounding is amazing. If you start young enough even putting away $50-$100 a month can add up to a sizable bundle by the time you retire.
The average person thinks that investing in the markets is very risky
This is just another misconception that has grown especially after the devastating crisis of 2008. If one is investing for the long haul and in quality stocks, then investing is one of the surest ways of making money and building a sustainable nest egg. However, one needs to understand what one is getting into and not plunge into the markets blindly as is the case with most individuals.
People assume that investing is hard to learn or master
We are referring to financial education and not higher education from institutes such as colleges or universities. We would even go as far as to suggest what these institutes teach regarding the stock market is useless. As with everything in life, if one wants to master a new skill, one needs to set some time aside for this endeavour. If you are going to talk the talk, then be ready to walk the walk. Don’t expect some expert to guide you to the promised land, for you will find that instead of finding paradise you are more likely to be welcomed into Hell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkf44QK7Tng
Regarding the stock markets it would be wise to look at the history of the markets; study past stock market crashes; the events that lead to the crash and events that set the foundation for the next bull run. Then paper trade before deploying your hard earned cash?
If you are going to rely on a financial advisor; how are you going to know if he is not selling you sack of sawdust if you know next to nothing. In most cases people set themselves up to lose in the markets or to be taken advantage of; it takes two to tango. Surveys done by bank rate shows that Millennials were twice as likely as any other group to cite lack of financial knowledge as their main reason for avoiding the markets. If this trend persists, they are going to be ten times more likely to ask the government for handouts when they retire.
Most Investors Distrust the Financial Markets
Yes, one could say there is a valid reason to fear the markets as many Millennials have grown up in an era of financial disasters; two of the most painful ones were the dot.com bubble and the Financial Crisis of 2008, which later came to be known as the Great Recession. However, again, lack of financial knowledge and the wrong perspective is what provides the foundation for this fear. Fear is a useless emotion when it comes to the stock markets; the best time to buy is when blood is flowing freely; translation, so-called disasters always provide opportunities for the astute investor. Additionally, one could have easily sidestepped both disasters by paying attention to market sentiment; in both instances the masses were euphoric, and they thought the bull market could last forever. Nothing lasts forever and when the masses are ecstatic it is time to leave the party. Disaster can be viewed as an opportunity or as a tragedy; it all comes down to one’s perspective. Alter the angle of observance and the perspective changes.
The Concept of retirement planning is nonexistent for many
Bankrate states that only 25% of Americans check their investments and retirement accounts more than once a month. These same individuals can spend countless of hours on their phones texting each other or on Facebook or otherwise known as Face Crack. One does not need to look at one’s investments every day, however, spending time on finding out what’s trending or where the crowd is leaning could make the difference between banking your profits or trying to catch a falling dagger.
Ideally, individuals should have a rough idea of how much they would like to have by the time they retire and then come out with a feasible plan. Otherwise, they are bound to come up with some harebrained scheme that is fuelled by fear when they suddenly realise that the years have passed away, but the account is looking as miserable as it did on the day of its inception.
Fear and Greed drive the masses; they are Euphoric before a market crashes and panic close to market bottoms
Disaster is usually opportunity knocking in disguise, instead of running, stop and give it a massive a hug. The chart below clearly indicates that stock market crashes and other negative financial events are nothing but mouthwatering long-term buying opportunities.
The financial world often refers to black Monday (the crash of 1987) when they want to ratchet up the fear factor; on a long-term chart, it is just another blip that more aptly represents an opportunity rather than a disaster. In every instance before the market pulled back firmly, the sentiment was extremely bullish; in other words, the crowd was euphoric. If you used just followed the emotion you would have managed to avoid almost every disaster and this dates back to the tulip bubble. We are not talking about timing the exact top; those that try to time the exact top usually have plenty of time on their hand and an enormous appetite for pain.
For the masses, sharp pullbacks feel like a crash because they have the uncanny ability to buy exactly at the wrong time; they buy high and sell low. We will examine the concept of opportunity being masked as a disaster in a future article.
How Fear and Greed to your advantage
The word disaster represents an opportunity for the astute investor. It is only the uneducated investor that views a market pullback through a negative lens, and this is usually done because they have not taken the time to study the markets. One would be well served if one spent some time in examining the history of stock market crashes and what was taking place before the markets crashed. In every instance, one will find out that the crowd was bullish and every Tom, Dick and Harry was busy giving out financial advice. When the crowd is happy, you should leave the party.
Spending a little time on history and market psychology could prove to be priceless. If you take the time to do this, you will have a better understanding of the markets than most so-called financial experts. The phrase “knowledge is power” was not coined for no reason, but there is a difference between knowledge and rubbish. When it comes to the stock markets, most of the stuff that is marketed as valuable is nothing but garbage and in many cases what the experts make fun of is what you should be paying attention to.
For instance, market sentiment is far from bullish even though the stock market is trading close to its highs. Hence, all sharp pullbacks have to be viewed as buying opportunities. When the crowd embraces this bull market, it will be time to leave the party.
Indoctrination Definition: Are Your Perceptions Really Yours?
To understand this topic, what indoctrination means, let’s start with a question. If two men are arguing and one guy has data to back up his stance, and the other does not have data to back up his stance but irrefutably believes his view is the right one. Who is correct and who is wrong?
The obvious answer would be to state that the guy that has the data to back his point, but if one digs deeper one would have to ask whether this data is indeed valid, has it been independently verified are the sources legit, etc. But even that does not matter, for no matter what data either individual provides to the other, they will both stick to their guns.
The right answer is that they are both right, for nothing anyone can say will move them to change their position. Welcome to the world of indoctrination. Being conservative or liberal or open-minded or closed-minded, or whatever label you want to come up, is in most cases nothing but a form of indoctrination. You think the way you do because of your parents, the school you went to, the friends you have and your religious bent and so on.
Taking things even further, one can state that the liberals are not wrong for the way they see the world because they believe in that line of thinking and the same applies to the conservatives. Alt-right and Alt-left are nothing but forms of indoctrination and the extreme right and left have just received a super dose of brainwashing.
The masses are Indoctrinated Into Believing Experts Know it all
This is the main reason we have stated over and over again, that one should not wear their emotions on their sleeves, for no good can come from it. What has made things worse today is that very few people agree to disagree and move on to a new topic. Today opposing groups want to beat their views into the other group, regardless of whether they agree or not.
This is how the trend of polarisation started. Once you start telling a group that does not agree with you, that they are wrong, that they are stupid and start calling them names, a dangerous sequence of events is triggered and nothing the other camp says or no matter what evidence is provided, the opposing camp will refuse to budge. Look around today for that is where we are and the trend is still in its infancy.
Noam Chomsky Provides A Nice Overview On the Field of Indoctrination
This is a long topic and thankfully, Noam Chomsky provides a nice overview of this subject. We will cover this topic in more detail but if you are interested in understanding more about the inner working of the mindset, then this is a topic one should familiarise themselves with and this video provides a good starting point
Random notes on other topics besides indoctrination
The idea is to incept the seeds of doubt; if you want more clarification on this topic, just watch the movie Inception. The top players have been incepting ideas into the masses for millennia; it works brilliantly and the results are highly rewarding so this process is not going to stop soon. Once the seeds are sown, it is easy to use mass media to provide this seed with a nourishing environment and from seedling, this doubt grows into a massive tree.
In the guise of trying to provide individuals with information, the medias main goal is to brainwash individuals. One of the main ploys is misdirection; this technique revolves around the ploy of creating a mountain out of a molehill to redirect the masses focus. Sadly, this technique works like a charm. The two most effective Brainwashing institutions are public schools and the mass media
Brainwashing Techniques: Using paid experts to support a false narrative
This is another technique that works like a charm and it is blatantly used in the financial sector. Expert after expert spouts an opinion and often the opinions are in direct opposition to each other. The idea is twofold, first to load you with so much information that you don’t quite remember all the details. Secondly, the idea is to cover both ends of the story and when the outcome comes to pass, they make it look like that was the main outcome they were broadcasting all along. In other words, when it comes to the markets, the experts cover both ends of the game, therefore there is no way they can lose.
However, what the masses fail to understand is that they are guessing just like the crowd is, but the only difference is that they control the media, while the people in the crowd are nothing but passive observers, waiting to be taken for a ride. Brainwashing Techniques Institutions & The Media Utilize
How Brainwashing Works
During the Korean War, Korean and Chinese captors reportedly brainwashed American POWs held in prison camps. Several prisoners ultimately confessed to waging germ warfare — which they hadn’t — and pledged allegiance to communism by the end of their captivity. At least 21 soldiers refused to come back to the United States when they were set free. It sounds impressive, but skeptics point out that it was 21 out of more than 20,000 prisoners in communist countries. Does brainwashing really work in any reliable way?
In psychology, the study of brainwashing, often referred to as thought reform, falls into the sphere of “social influence.” Social influence happens every minute of every day. It’s the collection of ways in which people can change other people’s attitudes, beliefs and behaviors. For instance, the compliance method aims to produce a change in a person’s behavior and is not concerned with his attitudes or beliefs. It’s the “Just do it” approach. Persuasion, on the other hand, aims for a change in attitude, or “Do it because it’ll make you feel good/happy/healthy/successful.” The education method (which is called the “propaganda method” when you don’t believe in what’s being taught) goes for the social-influence gold, trying to affect a change in the person’s beliefs, along the lines of “Do it because you know it’s the right thing to do.” Brainwashing is a severe form of social influence that combines all of these approaches to cause changes in someone’s way of thinking. Full Story
The True Story of Brainwashing and How It Shaped America
Journalist Edward Hunter was the first to sound the alarm. “Brain-washing Tactics Force Chinese Into Ranks of Communist Party,” blared his headline in the Miami Daily News in September 1950. In the article, and later in a book, Hunter described how Mao Zedong’s Red Army used terrifying ancient techniques to turn the Chinese people into mindless, Communist automatons. He called this hypnotic process “brainwashing,” a word-for-word translation from xi-nao, the Mandarin words for wash (xi) and brain (nao), and warned about the dangerous applications it could have. The process was meant to “change a mind radically so that its owner becomes a living puppet—a human robot—without the atrocity being visible from the outside.” It wasn’t the first time fears of Communism and mind control had seeped into the American public. In 1946 the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was so worried about the spread of Communism that it proposed removing liberals, socialists and communists from places like schools, libraries, newspapers and entertainment. Hunter’s inflammatory rhetoric didn’t immediately have a huge impact—until three years into the Korean War, when American prisoners of war began confessing to outlandish crimes.
When he was shot down over Korea and captured in 1952, Colonel Frank Schwable was the highest ranking military officer to meet that fate, and by February 1953, he and other prisoners of war had falsely confessed to using germ warfare against the Koreans, dropping everything from anthrax to the plague on unsuspecting civilians. Full Story
