Popular Media Lies To You: Don’t Listen To Experts As They Know Nothing

 popular media lies - fake news

What should traders have learned from the Nov-Dec 2018 crash? 

There is only one answer really; fear pays poorly.  We sent out an inordinate amount of updates during the crash phase, as we did through every crash like phase the market has experienced over the past several years. The reason we did this, was to prove in real time that giving into fear is a waste of time, money and good health. Once again the so-called crash of 2018 will have to be labelled as the crash that never was.

One day the market will experience something that will fall under the “crash” category that all the experts have been warning since the inception of this bull. For that to occur, bullish sentiment will have to soar to the extreme ranges and remain in that zone for an extended period.

 This Stock Market Bull is unlike other bulls

Long before this pullback, we stated that this bull market would soar to heights that would surprise even the most ardent of bulls, and that prediction has mostly come to pass.  Some of the most ardent of bulls started to keel over as early as 2016, and the last strong correction virtually knocked all of them out.  So where did they err? Over-reliance on old systems; the paradigm has changed, the players have changed, and as a result, the perceptions have changed. When it comes to the markets; the main driving force is emotions (perceptions); everything else on its top day is secondary at best.

Media Lies To The Masses;  Trying To Convince Them That Nothing has changed

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion.  Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one.

The results speak for themselves; the majority of our holdings were in the red during the pullback, but now they are in the black, proving that one should buy when there is blood flowing in the streets. It is a catchy and easy phrase to spit out but very hard to implement, because when push comes to shove, the masses will opt for being shoved.

V readings are still at ultra-high levels

V Indicator

We have alluded to the fact that there is a pattern between extreme weather and market action. Extreme weather usually pushes many people to act in wildly unpredictable ways. Look at animals when there is a sign of impending danger they act strangely, humans are not that different. The only real difference is that humans are not aware of this and tend to blame other factors for this irrational behaviour; this behaviour is reflected in and out of the markets.  Violent crimes and or bizarre crimes usually surge during these periods.   However, one of the best places to see this type of action is in the markets and the action over the past three months is clear evidence of this.

We have spotted what could turn out to be a new trend between the V-indicator and the Trend Indicator.  Our hypothesis:

“Higher  (V-Readings) readings, are more likely to ensure that the least probable outcome will come to pass in regards to the markets.”

For example, the least probable outcome from Dec 2018 to Jan 2019 was for the markets to mount a strong rally, but that is precisely what took place.  This pattern, if it continues, will provide another level (secondary) of confirmation that this bull market is destined to trend a lot higher than the most ardent of bulls could ever dream of.

Follow the trend for it is your friend, the rest is just hot air and noise

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on Popular Media Lies

Forget fake news, investors should realize the markets are fake, says asset manager

The global rally in financial markets is unsustainable because it only seems to respond to changes in the real economy when it fits a certain narrative, according to the CIO of investment firm Fasanara Capital.

“I call it fake markets… you know, these days they talk about fake news (but) these are fake markets in a way right?” Francesco Filia, CIO of Fasanara Capital, told CNBC on Wednesday.

Filia argued financial markets had become “complacent” and “insensitive” to fundamental changes in the economy. He suggested while markets appeared to surge higher on so-called good data, a mirrored response lower on negative sentiment had not been evident.

“I think this kind of market environment is both unstable and unsustainable… at some point, something is going to happen that is going to all of a sudden wake up markets as to this overvaluation,” Filia said.
European bourses were trading lower on Wednesday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi appeared to hint the ECB would be prepared to scale back its monetary policy amid improving economic prospects for Europe.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the broader S&P 500 index posted its biggest one-day drop in about six weeks overnight and closed at its lowest point since the end of May. Wall Street’s losses appeared to accelerate on news that the U.S. Senate had delayed voting on a health care reform bill. Full Story

Why robot traders haven’t replaced all the humans at the New York Stock Exchange—yet?

As in so many other industries, robots have been marching into Wall Street for years. That’s especially the case in stock trading, where algorithms now do the majority of buying and selling. Instead of a boisterous trading floor, these days many US equity transactions happen in a data center in suburban New Jersey. One place where human traders are safe, though, is the New York Stock Exchange, which has roots going back two centuries. The stock exchange has made sure its human presence is protected, for now.

NYSE’s several hundred traders and brokers are the face Wall Street, and form a crucial part of the NYSE brand, which is perhaps the best known in the financial industry. The stock exchange packs a marketing punch few, if any, businesses can match. But given that computers dominate stock trading just about everywhere else around the world—and play a pretty big role at NYSE, too—it’s reasonable to ask whether the people milling around the trading floor at 11 Wall Street in Manhattan are worth keeping around. Critics argue that it’s a façade for television cameras, a kind of capitalist Disneyland.

“If you were going to start from scratch, trading would be fully automated,” said Larry Tabb, founder of research and consulting firm Tabb Group. ”That said, I think the human role does provide assistance in trading.” Full Story

Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash?

With seemingly everyone from the blogosphere to the Tweeter-in-chief chiming in on fake news, have investors considered their risk/return profile may also be “fake”? When it comes to investing, who or what can we trust, is the market rigged, and why does it matter?

For eight years in a row now, an investment in the S&P 500 has yielded positive returns. In recent years, expressions like “investors buy the dips” and “low volatility” have become associated with this rally.
In the “old days”, investors used to construct portfolios that, at least in theory, provided a risk/return profile that they were comfortable with. For better or worse, I allege those “old days” are over. To be prepared for what’s ahead, let’s debunk some myths.

The system is rigged
For those that say the system is rigged, I concur. In my assessment, central banks are largely responsible for a compression of “risk premia.” All else equal, quantitative easing and its variants around the globe have made assets from equities to bonds appear less risky than they are. This is at the very core of central banks efforts to entice investors to take risks, as risk taking is key to making an economy grow. In practice, central banks have foremost pushed up financial assets, but have largely disappointed in generating real investments. As a result, those holding financial assets have disproportionally benefited. Full Story

 

Other Articles of Interest

women in their 30s
Welcome to the comprehensive guide to achieving financial prosperity in your 30s! This pivotal decade presents a unique opportunity to ...
lion king
Introduction In the realm of investments, where conformity is the norm, a distinct breed of investors known as contrarians emerges ...
blood on the streets
Unveiling the Enigma: "Who Said Buy When There's Blood in the Streets" In the realm of financial ventures, a renowned ...
Japanese currency
This article delves into a comprehensive analysis of the Japanese Yen ETF, highlighting its advantages, risks, and market performance. The ...
hidden psychology of stock market cycle
The Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) functions as a crucial stock market index, monitoring the performance of 15 utility companies ...
Deceptive Tactics
Perception plays a crucial role in how we interpret information and the data we are exposed to shapes our perception ...
Child hunger
Child hunger is an alarming global issue that continues to worsen at an unprecedented rate, with millions of children suffering ...
Volatility of the stock market
The aptitude for identifying opportunity within disorder presents a highly valuable skill that can empower individuals to prosper in tumultuous ...
War of Attrition
Investing in the stock market can be a game of patience and perseverance, often likened to a war of attrition ...
Deep value investing
One of the key factors contributing to the crowd's losses in the stock market is the influence of emotions. A ...
popular media lies - fake news
  What should traders have learned from the Nov-Dec 2018 crash?  There is only one answer really; fear pays poorly.  ...
Fiat Currency
Fiat Money The Root Of All Things Bad Fiat Money: The mother of all evils is fiat. Without Fiat, none ...
Business Investment; the best time to buy is when the crowd is scared Business investing: One of the best places ...
The monthly chart of the Dow going from 1985 Stock market bull vs bear: Each point on this chart represents ...
Stock Market Correction
What is the difference between a Market correction and a back-breaking correction? A sharp stock market correction is the thing ...
Denmark has joined several other European countries in banning garments that cover the face, including Islamic veils such as the ...
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden's top three parties are running almost level four months ahead of a general election, with the ...
The Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported that job cuts were likely to extend into 2019.Separately, Bloomberg News reported the bank ...
Chinese convicts executed after stadium trial Beijing (AFP) - Thousands of spectators filled a stadium in China to watch 10 ...
Have Too Many Employees, Branches Japanese banks may have too many employees and branches, and the overcapacity is contributing to ...
BOJ can't exit stimulus when inflation below 1 pct - BOJ Gov candidate Ito TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of ...
Is Europe Swinging to the Right? Austria went to polls on Oct 15 to choose its next leader. After a ...
For African migrants, 'extreme vetting' from U.S. to Europe slams the door shut The Trump administration's immigration crackdown was only ...
Rise of the machines must be monitored, say global finance regulators LONDON (Reuters) - Replacing bank and insurance workers with ...
Middle-Class Families Confront Soaring Health Insurance Costs CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — Consumers here at first did not believe the health insurance ...
Agrihoods: The newest trend in millennial living Millennials are harkening back to simpler days and creating communities on farms, surrounded ...
Experts Making Stock Market Crash Forecasts usually know nothing
Over the past several years the Naysayers have predicted the Market would crash and burn; we blatantly disagreed and opted ...
Companies will opt for Robots
Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this ...
Bearish vs Bullish
Bearish vs Bullish; outlook for a stock market bull is much stronger Flashback; Dow today looks like Dow yesteryear. The ...
Bull Market
This Bull Market is universally disliked because it's being artificially Propped Throughout this bull-run, a plethora of reasons have been ...
Stock Market Fear and Greed are the primary driving force behind all markets Stock Market Investing is all about not ...
Jesus said, “ Recognize what is in your sight, and that which is hidden from you will become plain to ...
Americans Are Becoming Dumber
Math Scores dropping precipitously indicating that Americans are becoming Dumber A random study was conducted with 348 young children to ...
Here’s how Central Bankers Rig the Markets Central Banks Stock Market: Central bankers utilise fiat money to rain misery and ...
Wells Fargo: A Somerset County woman is suing Wells Fargo Bank alleging she was fired for refusing to participate in ...
South china sea dispute: Beijing is looking for foreign contractors to help find oil and gas under the South China ...
Ant Financial Services, China’s largest online payment operator, sees mobile wallet applications becoming the next big technology trend in the ...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could ...
Indoctrination Definition: Are Your Perceptions Really Yours? To understand this topic, what indoctrination means, let’s start with a question. If ...
United Airlines will not fire employees involved in the recent dragging of a passenger from his seat, an incident CEO ...
Mass Hysteria definition: Current Overreaction Is The Perfect Example According to Wikipedia, the definition of Mass Hysteria is In sociology ...
What is quantitative easing? We are entering a new paradigm; get used to forever Quantitative Easing - QE, though it ...
The Boom and Bust Cycle: Opportunity Knocking? Remember that when the markets eventually correct, this correction will be broadcasted as ...